A United Ireland Plebiscite Must Not Turn Into 'A Sequel to Brexit', Analysts Alert

Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that polarised the country and caused disorder, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is prepared.

That represents the warning from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."

Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion

The team have studied the political, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to stir debate on the topic with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.

"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."

Governmental Mandate

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a national vote.

Absence of Substantive Discussion

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of serious debate, noted the journalist.

"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the book, no writer supports unification or the current situation. Each composes two pieces that seek impartiality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and social data, historical precedents and structural examples.

Discussions cover flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.

"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented the writer. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens report they support unity but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.

"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.

Probability of Referendum

McBride believes a national vote in his era is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid points, he commented. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will ultimately be defeated but all factions has possesses valuable insights to learn from the opposing viewpoints."

Call for Wider Discussion

Westminster should join the discussion, stated the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."